The Study of Jyotisha · Chapter 52 of 54 · Part Ten · History

#Jyotisha and the evidence

#Why this chapter is here

A course that teaches a subject honestly must say what is known about whether it works. Varahamihira asked his ideal astrologer to settle disputes between books "by actual observation" (Brihat Samhita 2). This chapter applies the same principle to astrology itself. It does not ask you to stop studying Jyotisha — the course would not exist if the subject had no value — but it asks you to know the evidence.

#What could be tested

Astrology makes many claims that can, in principle, be checked:

• that a chart describes a person's character (so astrologers should be able to match charts to personality descriptions);
• that a chart shows life events (marriage, children, career, illness, death) and their timing;
• that people born at the same time and place ("time twins") should be alike;
• that matching scores predict how marriages turn out;
• that remedies change outcomes.

#The main studies

Carlson (1985). In a double-blind experiment published in Nature (vol. 318, pp. 419–425), astrologers who had agreed the test was fair were given a person's natal chart and three personality profiles (from a standard personality test), one of them the person's. They had to pick the right one. They did no better than chance — one in three — although they had predicted they would do far better.

Narlikar and colleagues (2009). In India, the astrophysicist Jayant Narlikar and colleagues collected the birth data of 100 intellectually gifted schoolchildren and 100 children with intellectual disabilities, and invited astrologers to tell which were which from the charts alone (Current Science, vol. 96, pp. 641–643). Twenty-seven astrologers took part. None did significantly better than chance.

Time twins. Studies of people born within minutes of each other — whose charts are nearly identical — have looked for the similarities astrology predicts. A large study by G. Dean and I. W. Kelly (2003) drew on over two thousand people born in London in March 1958, often within minutes of each other, measured on more than a hundred variables over decades, and found no tendency for close time twins to resemble each other more than other people.

Marriage matching. No study testing Ashtakoota or porutham scores against how marriages actually turn out was found in the research for this course (Chapter 41).

Remedies. No controlled study of gemstones worn for astrological purposes was found; the related evidence is discussed in Chapter 44.

The Mars effect. The French psychologist Michel Gauquelin reported in the 1950s that eminent athletes were born more often with Mars just past rising or culminating. This is the most discussed positive claim. Attempted replications gave conflicting results, and later analyses traced much of the effect to how the samples were selected. It is, in any case, not a claim of classical Jyotisha.

The overall verdict of the scientific literature is that astrology's specific claims, when tested under controlled conditions, have not been supported.

#Why astrology feels accurate

If the tests are negative, why do so many intelligent people find readings accurate? Psychology offers well-established explanations:

• The Barnum (or Forer) effect. In 1949 the psychologist Bertram Forer gave his students a "personality analysis" — the same text for everyone, made of general statements ("You have a great need for other people to like you", "At times you are extroverted, at other times reserved"). They rated it, on average, as highly accurate for themselves. General statements feel personal.
• Remembering hits, forgetting misses. A prediction that comes true is remembered; ten that did not are forgotten.
• Flexible interpretation. A reading that says "change in career" can be matched to almost any event.
• Many methods. This course has shown how many systems there are: several dasha systems (Chapter 23), hundreds of yogas (Chapter 17), definitions that differ by book (Chapter 18). After an event, at least one method will almost always seem to have "predicted" it. That is guaranteed by the number of methods, not evidence that they work.
• Self-fulfilling expectation. A person told that a period will be bad may act in ways that make it so; one told it will be good may take chances that succeed.
• Cold reading. A reader who asks questions and watches reactions can produce surprisingly specific "insights" (Chapter 43).

None of this requires anyone to be dishonest. Readers and clients alike can be sincerely convinced.

#Testing for yourself

A student need not take anyone's word. Some honest tests anyone can do:

1. The question journal (Chapter 40): write down predictions before outcomes, then count.
2. Blind matching: ask a friend to give you the charts of several people you do not know, with separate descriptions of them, and try to match them. Score yourself against chance.
3. Fixed rules: before looking at a person's life, write down which system and which rules you will use. Then check. Do not change the rules after seeing the answer.
4. Count the base rate: before treating a factor as meaningful, find out how often it occurs (Chapters 41, 44). A factor present in half of all charts cannot explain one person's misfortune.

#What remains

If the tests are right, what is left of Jyotisha? A great deal:

• A monument of science and mathematics. Aryabhata's astronomy, the Kerala series, the calendar, the computation of eclipses (Chapters 49, 51) are real achievements.
• A history of ideas. Jyotisha records how people in India and beyond thought about time, fate, the heavens and human life over three thousand years, and how cultures (Vedic, Greek, Persian, Arab) met and exchanged knowledge (Chapters 47–50).
• A living culture. The calendar, festivals, names and many customs of hundreds of millions of people depend on it.
• A language for reflection. Many people use a chart as a mirror: a structured way to think about their strengths, relationships and choices. Used without fear, without payment for remedies, and without claims of certainty, this can be harmless and even helpful.
• The tradition's own wisdom. Its best authors already knew the limits: Varahamihira's "rain and cup" (Chapter 24), his respect for observation, his admission of doubt; the many cancellations that soften the harsh rules; the teaching that effort and conduct matter.

This course was written for people who want to study this tradition seriously — its rules, its history and its evidence — and to keep it free of fear and exploitation.

#Summary

• Controlled tests have not supported astrology's specific claims: astrologers could not match charts to personality profiles (Carlson 1985) or to intellectual ability (Narlikar et al. 2009); time twins are not more alike (Dean and Kelly 2003).
• No study shows that marriage matching or remedies work.
• Astrology feels accurate because of general statements (the Barnum effect), memory for hits, flexible interpretation, the large number of methods, expectation and cold reading.
• A student can test claims with journals, blind matching, fixed rules and base rates.
• What remains is a great scientific, historical and cultural tradition, and a language for reflection — to be used honestly.

#Exercises

1. Describe the design of Carlson's 1985 test. Why was it fair to the astrologers?
2. What did the Narlikar study ask astrologers to do, and what was the result?
3. Explain the Barnum effect with an example of your own.
4. Why does having many dasha systems make astrology harder to test, and how can a student guard against this?
5. List three things of value in Jyotisha that do not depend on its predictions being true.

Answers: 1. Astrologers chose, for each natal chart, which of three personality profiles belonged to its owner, without knowing who the people were; the astrologers had agreed beforehand that the test was fair and predicted they would succeed. 2. To tell from charts alone which children were intellectually gifted and which had intellectual disabilities; none did significantly better than chance. 3. For example: "You are sometimes confident, but at times you doubt yourself" — true of almost everyone, yet it feels personal. 4. Because after any event some system will seem to have predicted it; guard by fixing the system and rules in advance. 5. For example: its astronomy and mathematics; its record of history and cultural exchange; its role in the calendar and festivals; its value as a tool of reflection; its ethical wisdom.